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Five active monitors track the variables that move the long-term thesis, not the next earnings print. Nigeria's January-2025 tariff regime and the IHS Towers re-acquisition (~R10bn/year EBITDA recapture announced) are the two biggest binary events on the desk. Layered on top: the unreserved legal cluster (DoJ Iran/Afghanistan grand jury, R74bn Turkcell, five US ATA suits, AC Shining Stars €4bn trademark), MoMo's four-year MAU plateau and the structural-separation path, and naira/CBN macro stress. Each monitor is wired to a specific signal from the report's failure modes, bull/bear verdict, or variant-perception ledger — and is designed to detect a concrete regulatory, legal, deal, or macro event, not generic news.

Active Monitors

Rank	Watch item	Cadence	Why it matters	What would be detected
1	Nigeria mobile-tariff durability — NCC stance, populist political signals, competitor pricing	1d	The entire FY25 reset rests on a single NCC approval that took 12 years to land; a populist rollback during the 2027 election cycle is the most asymmetric long-term thesis variable	NCC consultation, ruling, or cap on the January-2025 hike; Tinubu or National Assembly affordability signals; Federal High Court action; Airtel Nigeria data-bundle cuts of 20%+
2	IHS Towers re-acquisition — FCCPC, Nigerian SEC and IHS LatAm disposal clearance	1d	The announced ~R10bn/year EBITDA recapture is the structural cost wedge the bull case requires; FCCPC/SEC capacity-sharing remedies that trim recapture 30-50% is the bear primary trigger; live H2 2026 closing window	FCCPC consultations, staff memos, or remedies; Nigerian SEC publications; independent towerco opposition (Helios, ATC, Eaton); IHS LatAm disposal progress; revised closing timeline
3	Legal-tail cluster — DoJ, Turkcell ConCourt, ATA suits, AC Shining Stars	1d	Four-to-five matters all classified "remote" with R1.81bn aggregate contingent liability against multi-billion historical settlement precedent; a single adverse outcome forces R5-15bn provision that erases a year of FCF and the rebased dividend	DoJ indictment, deferred prosecution agreement, monitorship, or closure; Turkcell ConCourt ruling; ATA scheduling orders or damages; AC Shining Stars interim injunction; reclassification from "remote" to "probable"; any update to chairman Mcebisi Jonas's dual SA-Special-Envoy-to-US role
4	MoMo crystallisation — MAU growth, structural separation closes, external valuation marks	1w	MoMo MAU has been net flat at 63-72m for four years while the SIM base grew 70m+; if separations close into a flat-MAU phase the SOTP fintech leg crystallises at $30-40/MAU (Airtel Money) not $85-150 (Mastercard / M-Pesa), worth R55-110bn of equity value	MAU disclosure beats/misses; Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria separation close terms; Mastercard tranche progression beyond the $5.2bn EV anchor; fresh private placements or strategic-investor entries; competing African mobile-money transaction comps
5	Naira / CBN macro stress	1d	FY24's R10.9bn net loss was almost entirely an R18.9bn naira translation hit; a fresh -20% naira move would replay the FY24 scenario even with the tariff hike intact	CBN policy moves; foreign reserves trending below $30bn; official-rate or capital-controls changes; IMF Article IV statements on Nigeria; oil-price-driven fiscal stress; cracks in Tinubu reform credibility

Why These Five

These five map onto the verdict's three unresolved variables and the long-term thesis's six failure modes. Monitors 1 and 5 jointly track Nigeria — separating regulatory/political risk from FX/macro risk because they break on different calendars. Monitor 2 watches the only deal whose close terms can deliver or void the ~R10bn/year structural cost wedge. Monitor 3 tracks the joint-distribution legal risk that the +71% one-year tape is pricing as essentially zero — the highest-conviction variant view in the report. Monitor 4 watches the fintech crystallisation path, flagged in the long-term thesis as "the failure mode most likely to be underweighted by the market." Deliberately excluded: the AGM remuneration vote (process signal), routine SA franchise updates (slow-moving), and naira drift inside ±5% (already priced into consensus). Re-evaluate the watch set after the H1 2026 print and the IHS regulatory window close.